Welcome to Bob’s super late incredibly last minute before he leaves the house and won’t come home before the Oscars start predictions and want to wins.
I write and this post the day of the ceremony, February 24th, 2019. Not coming in blind – Mike, Cody, and I did record a podcast on the topic. Give that a listen for the three of us going through every category our thoughts on each and good conversation.
Most of these do get a write-up in my year end review, in some month’s Short Takes, or own review. (Ballad of Buster Scruggs, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Spider-Man, Free Solo, A Quiet Place)
What I say there may be slightly different than I said on the podcast, but likely about the same. Since then I did see First Man but was unable to see any of the others I missed.
Anyway – my should win and prediction wins. Want the thoughts of why? Listen to the podcast or ask in comments and I’ll get into the details. If I dealt with my time better I’d have those thoughts on each category. I’ll likely jot some things down though.
Best Picture (saw all nominees)
Should: Even though I liked Star is Born and BlacKkKlansman better, I’m rooting for The Favourite.
Prediction: A Star is Born. Big and crowd-pleasing and a damned good movie to boot it hits so many of the boxes. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is big and crowd-pleasing too but honestly isnt’ that good of a movie. My backup pick is Green Book, which while solid flick isn’t Best Picture. Many pick Roma here but I expect it to get Foreign flick (spoilers) and don’t think they’d give it both places.
Best Actor (didn’t see DaFoe in At Eternity’s Gate)
Should: Christian Bale, Vice
Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bale really dissapeared into Cheney, Malek did a fantastic job – his peformance is the reason the film got the notes it did, but if I’m also thinking “Malek is doing a great Freddie” as the movie goes on, rather than IS Freddie, thus Bale.
Best Actress (didn’t’ see Glenn Close in The WIfe;and Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me)
Should:Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
Only picking this will as everything I keep seeing is pointing at her. So shrug. From the ones I’ve seen, I’d toss the will at Colman. I note Lady Gaga is astounding in A Star is Born, hopefully erasing the last of the “she’s a crazy popstar” haters out there.
Supporting Actor (didn’t see Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Should: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Prediction:: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
A solid category. And I’d really be happy for any of them with maybe a lesser take for Rockwell as Bush. Sam Elliot did so much heavy lifting for Star is Born i feel bad for putting Driver in for should, it’s a close second. Ali is strong too; my main issue with that film is HE should have been the main character not Tony but that’s a whole different post.
Supporting Actress (Seen All)
Should: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Prediction: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Back up; Amy Adams, Vice
Animated Feature (seen all but Mirai)
Should: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Prediction: Incredibles 2
Spider-man is the best. Movie. Of. the. Year. It’s insulting it’s relegated to just Animated. This category tends to go to most seen animated film, regardless of content, so thus Incredibles 2.
Cinematography (didn’t see Never Look Away)
Should & Prediction: Roma
Costume Design (didn’t see Mary Queen of Scots)
Should: Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Will: Black Panther
Black Panther is my second pick. Please not Mary Queen of Scots – tired of standard historical costumes winning. With that note – okay with The Favourite; much more went into that one. Yes, Buster Scruggs also comes from historical setting, but is incredibly stylized.
Directing (saw all)
Should and Prediction – Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Back up – Spike Lee, Blackkklansman
Doc Feature (saw two of the five – Free Solo and RBG)
Should – They Shall Not Grow Old… of the nominated Won’t You Be My Neighbor, oh wait… Free Solo
Prediction: – Free Solo
I didn’t see any of these… sorry.
Prediction: Period. End of Sentence
Editing (seen all)
Should: The Favourite
Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Foreign Language (I only saw Cold War and Roma)
Should and prediction: Roma
But go see Cold War, it’s great.
Make up & Hairstyling (didn’t see Mary Queen of Scots)
Should & Prediction: Vice
Music (Score) (saw All)
Should: Isle of Dogs
Prediction: Black Panther
Can someone explain how Mary Poppins Returns was nominated? So many things get disqualified for taking snippits from public domain, but this score was just reworkings of the songs from the first time around.
Music (song) (saw all)
Should and prediction: “Shallow” A Star is Born
This is a gimme. If anything else wins I’m sure people will burn down the theatre. But with that – if “When a Cowboy Trades his Spurs for Wings” wins, I’ll be so freakin’ happy.
Production Design (saw all)
Should – Black Panther (with The Favourite being a close second)
Prediction – First Man
Short Film – Animated (saw all)
Should – Weekends
Prediction – Animal Behavior
Almost put Bao as prediction but the one I like the least always wins, so Animal Behavior – see my article
Short Film – Live Action (saw all)
Should – Detainment
Prediction – Marguerite
Sound Editing (saw all)
Should – Roma
Will – Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing (saw all)
Should – First Man
Prediction – Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects (saw all)
Should – Ready Player One
Prediction First man
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) (saw all but Can You Ever Forgive Me)
Should – Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Prediction – Blackkklansman
Writing (original screenplay)
Should – Eighth Grade but it’s not nominated. So The Favourite, second choice is First Reformed in its single nomination.
Prediction – Green Book
Well, that’s all she wrote! What do you think? Let me know below!